From ₦2,500 to ₦105,000: How rice prices skyrocketed in 24 years

On January 18, 2022, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Rice Farmers Association of Nigeria (RIFAN) made headlines with the unveiling of rice pyramids in Abuja, a symbol of Nigeria’s progress in rice production under the Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP).

However, three years later, the narrative has shifted, with the country once again relying heavily on rice imports to meet demand.

The Anchor Borrowers Programme: A Promising Start

Launched under former CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele, the ABP aimed to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on rice imports by supporting local farmers. By 2021, the program achieved notable milestones:

• According to Vanguard, 4.489 million farmers were funded, cultivating 5.3 million hectares of farmland nationwide.
• The number of integrated rice mills grew from 6 in 2015 to over 50 by 2021.
• Thailand’s rice exports to Nigeria dropped significantly, from 1.3 million metric tons in 2014 to just 2,160 metric tons in 2021.
• Local rice production surged from 5.4 million metric tons in 2015 to over 9 million metric tons in 2021.

Despite these achievements, rising rice prices due to demand-supply gaps and economic challenges signaled underlying issues.

Decline in Rice Production by 2024

By 2024, rice production had dropped to 8.1 million metric tons, below the annual demand of 10 million metric tons. The decline was driven by:

1. Insecurity: Persistent violence disrupted farming activities.
2. High Input Costs: Fertilizers and farming essentials became prohibitively expensive.
3. Currency Devaluation: Increased costs of imported farming inputs impacted local production.
4. Climate Change: Erratic weather patterns reduced yields.
5. Policy Inconsistencies: Unstable agricultural and trade policies discouraged investment.

Impact of Rising Food Inflation

By November 2024, food inflation reached a record 39.93%, with staples like rice, yam, maize, and palm oil becoming unaffordable for many Nigerians. A 50-kg bag of rice, which cost ₦8,500 in 2015, had skyrocketed to ₦95,000–₦105,000 by late 2024.

Government Interventions: Limited Effectiveness

In July 2023, President Bola Tinubu declared a food security emergency and introduced a 150-day duty-free window for rice, maize, and wheat imports in 2024. While this temporarily boosted supply, critics argue that:

• It undermined local farmers by making imported rice cheaper.
• It failed to significantly reduce food inflation due to limited implementation.

Reviving Rice Production: Recommendations

Experts propose several strategies to revitalize the rice sector:

1. Enhance Security: Deploy security forces to protect farmers and farmlands.
2. Invest in Irrigation: Build infrastructure for year-round farming.
3. Subsidize Inputs: Provide affordable fertilizers, seeds, and mechanized tools.
4. Ensure Policy Stability: Create consistent policies to attract private investment.
5. Adopt Climate-Smart Practices: Promote resilient crop varieties and sustainable farming techniques.
6. Regulate Markets: Prevent price exploitation during periods of scarcity.

The Path Forward

Nigeria’s potential to become a global rice exporter lies in addressing systemic issues in production and distribution. With vast arable land and resources, a renewed focus on sustainable agricultural practices, investment in infrastructure, and long-term policy planning can help the country reclaim its path to rice self-sufficiency.